Mercado de FPSO: espera-se que alcance $14,86 bilhões até 2033!

According to new industry forecasts, the global FPSO market is expected to reach $8.47 billion by 2025 and expand to $14.86 billion by 2033, with a compound annual growth rate of 7.28%. The growth rate is not considered "explosive", but the advantage lies in stability, sustainability, and the "directional funding" behind it is becoming increasingly clear: the future new oil and gas supply will mainly come from deepwater and ultra deepwater.

These areas generally lack infrastructure, are far away, and have strong sea conditions. FPSO is currently an economical, low-risk, and fast to put into operation solution for operators.

The restart of deepwater projects is promoting the return of bulk orders

More than 65% of newly commissioned/under construction FPSO projects worldwide are located in deepwater and ultra deepwater (mainly in Brazil, Guyana, and West Africa); Latin America alone contributed over 40% of new orders; Only one operator in Brazil, Petrobras, has a clear schedule of 16+FPSOs by 2030.

This is not a "random improvement", but a phased acceleration of the commercialization of deepwater reserves.

Technological upgrades are expanding the 'applicability' of FPSOs

Modular topside reduces delivery cycle by 6-12 months; The new generation of power generation solutions can reduce carbon emissions by 15-20%; The application of digital twins reduces operational costs by 5-8%; Large capacity ships can easily handle 200000 to 300000 barrels per day.

Latin American Highway, West Africa warms up, Asia Pacific stabilizes

Brazil: More than half of the global FPSO production comes from here, and the delivery pace from 2025 to 2030 is almost 2-3 ships per year;

Guyana: ExxonMobil's plan is to double its production capacity by 2027, with FPSOs being pushed forward at a rate of "one per year";

West Africa: Angola project recovery, Nigeria restart, coupled with discoveries such as Venus/Graff in Namibia, the next 3-5 years are crucial;

Asia Pacific: mainly focused on modification and life extension projects, with a large number of them, but the ship types and scale are relatively medium-sized.

In the future, FPSO demand will not be concentrated in a single market, but will resonate across multiple regions. The volatility will be significantly lower than the previous cycle.

The reserve of orders from top enterprises is still considerable

Currently, there are less than ten companies in the global FPSO market that truly possess full cycle capability.

Based on order flow and current investment pace, SBM Offshore, MODEC, BW Offshore, and Yinson account for over 60% of global activity projects; Many companies are adopting lease contracts with a term of 20+years to lock in cash flow;

There is little doubt that the majority of the industry's value will continue to be concentrated in the top companies.